When Erling Haaland, Manchester City striker, stepped onto the pitch at Ullevaal Stadion on Saturday, the stakes were crystal clear: a win would all but lock Norway into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while Italy’s dream of automatic qualification slipped further away.
The match, part of the UEFA Group I World Cup qualifierOslo, kicked off at 17:00 UK time (18:00 CEST). Norway, coached by Ståle Solbakken, arrived on an eight‑match winning streak, having netted 34 goals and conceded just four. Israel, led by Ran Ben Shimon, were hoping to mend bruises from two prior defeats to the Norwegians.
Why this match matters
Group I is a tight‑knit marathon. After five fixtures, Norway sit on 15 points, a clean sweep that puts them six points clear of second‑placed Italy. A single slip‑up could hand the Azzurri a lifeline; a victory, however, would hand the World Cup qualification dream a near‑certain reality for Norway – their first since the 1998 tournament in France.
Goal‑difference is the silent hero of qualifying campaigns. Norway’s +30 margin dwarfs Italy’s modest +12, meaning even a draw would keep the Italians on the back foot. As Football Italia noted on October 11, “If Norway drop points, Italy’s only hope is to hope for a miracle elsewhere.”
Norway's road to the brink
Since October 2024, Norway have undergone a renaissance. A crushing 5‑1 loss to Austria in the Nations League seemed to spark a tactical overhaul by Solbakken. The result? A seismic shift in attacking philosophy, with Haaland becoming the focal point.
Haaland’s numbers read like a fantasy draft: nine goals in five Group I matches, five of which came against Moldova in a single 5‑0 thrashing. Alexander Sørloth (Atletico Madrid) and Oscar Bobb (Manchester City) have added depth, while Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal) sits out with a hamstring strain.
- 34 goals scored in the last eight matches
- Only four conceded during the same span
- Three consecutive games with three or more goals
- Five clean sheets in Group I
“We’ve built a side that can dominate possession and still hit the counter with lethal precision,” Solbakken said in a pre‑match interview. “Haaland’s work ethic pushes everyone higher.”
Israel's challenge and recent form
Israel’s journey has been a roller‑coaster. After a 4‑2 loss in Debrecen (March 2025) and a 5‑0 demolition in September (where Haaland netted a hat‑trick after missing a penalty twice), the Israelis have managed to keep scoring – they’ve failed to find the net only once in their last 13 outings.
Goalkeeper Daniel Peretz remains a fan favourite, especially after a dramatic VAR‑driven penalty retake against Haaland in September. “It felt like the world was watching every breath I took,” Peretz recalled. “Even when the call went against me, I stayed focused.”
Ben Shimon’s side will rely on veteran striker Eran Mizrahi to provide a glimmer of hope. “We respect Norway, but we’re not here to be spectators,” the Israeli manager warned. “If we score first, the game opens up.”
Reactions from managers and players
After the final whistle, a jubilant Solbakken praised his squad’s discipline. “We kept the shape, pressed high, and took our chances. That’s how championships are won.”
Haaland, ever the modest winger‑turned‑striker, shrugged off the praise. “It’s a team effort. I just finish the chances the lads create,” he said, glancing at the roaring Oslo crowd.
On the other side, Ben Shimon accepted the defeat with grace. “We gave it our all. The fans were amazing, and we’ll learn from this for the next matches.”
Implications for Italy and the play‑offs
Italy, coached by Luciano Spalletti, sit at 9 points after a 3‑0 loss in Oslo on June 15 2025. The defeat not only widened the points gap but also hammered their goal‑difference advantage. Football Italia’s analysis suggests Italy now face the dreaded play‑off route, a scenario they have avoided since the 2020 Euro qualifiers.
Spalletti admitted the pressure. “We have to stay positive. The next two games against Estonia and Albania are decisive.” Italy’s next fixture is on October 14 2025 against Estonia, the same day Norway meet the Baltic side.
Should Norway win, they cruise into the World Cup with a perfect record. A draw would still leave them eight points clear with three games remaining – virtually a guaranteed spot.
What comes next
Norway’s calendar continues with an away clash against Estonia on October 14 2025. A win there would seal the top spot beyond doubt. Meanwhile, Israel travel to Italy for a showdown that could further dent the Azzurri’s morale.
For fans, the drama is far from over. The group’s final round of fixtures in November promises high‑stakes battles, and the storylines – from Haaland’s pursuit of a 10‑goal tally to Italy’s fight for survival – will keep football lovers glued to their screens.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Norway’s win affect Italy’s World Cup chances?
A Norwegian victory widens the points gap to six and improves Norway’s goal‑difference, leaving Italy unable to overtake without Norway slipping up. Consequently, Italy will most likely be forced into the play‑offs, where a single loss could end their campaign.
What are the key statistics from Norway’s recent qualifying run?
Norway have scored 34 goals and conceded just four in their last eight matches, keep three‑plus goal tallies in six of those games, and boast five clean sheets. Haaland alone contributes nine goals, including a five‑goal haul against Moldova.
Why is the match considered politically sensitive?
Relations between Norway and Israel have been strained over recent diplomatic disputes, leading to visible protests outside Ullevaal Stadion. The political backdrop adds emotional weight for both supporters and officials, making the fixture more than just a football contest.
What are the next matches for Norway and Israel after this game?
Norway travel to Estonia on October 14 2025, while Israel head to Italy for a showdown in Udine on the same day. Both fixtures carry extra pressure as the group’s final standings take shape.
How has Erling Haaland performed in the qualifiers so far?
Haaland has been a scoring machine, netting nine goals in five games, including a historic five‑goal burst against Moldova and a hat‑trick against Israel. He missed two penalties in the September clash, but his overall conversion rate remains among the highest in the group.
Edward Garza
October 11, 2025 AT 22:00Haaland's hat‑trick just proves Norway's system works, nothing more.
Allen Rodi
October 21, 2025 AT 22:00Nice breakdown of Norway's recent run. The way Solbakken rotated the front three really stretched defenses, and Haaland's movement created space for the wingers. If Italy keeps dropping points, we'll see a new Nordic powerhouse at the World Cup.
Jody Webster
October 31, 2025 AT 21:00Well, i guess that's one way to look at it,, but really,, the stats speak for themselves,, doesnt they??
Steve Goodger
November 10, 2025 AT 21:00What a remarkable run for Norway, and every fan deserves a moment to reflect on the collective effort that has brought them this far.
Solbakken's tactical flexibility has allowed the team to adapt to various opponents, from the low‑block of Israel to the high‑pressing style of Italy.
Haaland's positioning demonstrates an understanding of space that goes beyond raw talent; he consistently finds pockets between the lines.
Meanwhile, the supporting cast – Sørloth, Bobb, and the creative engine of Ødegaard when healthy – provide a balanced attack that keeps defenses guessing.
The defensive unit, conceding only four goals in eight games, shows discipline and coordination rarely seen at this level.
Goalkeepers have been vigilant, and the backline has maintained a compact shape, making it difficult for opponents to exploit gaps.
From a psychological perspective, the team's confidence has flourished, each victory reinforcing a winning mentality.
Statistically, a +30 goal differential is a testament to both offensive prowess and defensive stability.
Such a margin often predicts success in later stages, as it indicates dominance over the group.
Looking ahead, the upcoming clash with Estonia will test their ability to maintain focus against a motivated underdog.
If they keep their composure, the path to the World Cup becomes a formality rather than a gamble.
For Italy, the situation is a cautionary tale about complacency and the importance of consistency.
The Azzurri must regroup quickly, address their defensive lapses, and find a way to spark their attack.
In the broader context of European football, Norway's ascent highlights the shifting power dynamics where traditional powerhouses can be challenged.
Fans worldwide should celebrate this narrative of a nation rising through strategic planning and unwavering belief.
Ultimately, football remains a game of moments, and Norway's current moment is undeniably bright.
johnson ndiritu
November 20, 2025 AT 21:00Haaland's hat‑trick is a textbook example of why Norway is stealing the spotlight, and Italy can thank their own incompetence for this outcome. 😂🙄
sheri macbeth
November 30, 2025 AT 21:00Sure, Haaland scores, but did anyone notice the sudden surge of lighting at Ullevaal? Must be the secret government wave generator they installed for the match.
Lane Herron
December 10, 2025 AT 21:00The confluence of high‑press metrics and expected‑goals variance unequivocally validates Norway's tactical paradigm, rendering Italy's strategic elasticity suboptimal.
Henry Cohen
December 20, 2025 AT 21:00Fact check: Norway's +30 goal differential is statistically unprecedented in a six‑team group since 2002, so the odds are heavily stacked.
Mark Langdon
December 30, 2025 AT 21:00I feel for the Italian fans; it's rough when a campaign collapses, but Norway's fans deserve the celebration after that relentless attack.
Ciara Russell-Baker
January 9, 2026 AT 21:00Nothings more annoying than seeing Italy lose to a tiny nation, lol.
Aaron Samarita
January 19, 2026 AT 21:00Another day, another drama – Norway just rolled over Italy, big surprise? Not really.